Kenya and Uganda have moved to calm fears of fuel shortages as escalating conflict in the Middle East disrupts global oil shipments and drives prices higher.
Kenya Secures Imports Through April
Energy and Petroleum Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi confirmed Kenya has sufficient petroleum stocks to meet domestic demand and regional obligations. Scheduled imports are secured through April 2026 under the government‑to‑government framework, insulating the country from volatile spot markets.
“Kenya has sufficient petroleum products to cover both the country and the region in the wake of the crisis in the Middle East,” Wandayi said.
Uganda Highlights Alternative Supply Routes
The Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC) also issued a statement reassuring citizens and businesses that fuel supplies remain secure. UNOC, working with supply partner Vitol, stressed that Uganda’s supply chain does not rely on a single region.
“UNOC and its supply partner, Vitol, are keenly following the events as they unfold and wish to reassure the public that all appropriate measures are being taken to ensure the uninterrupted supply of petroleum products into the country,” UNOC said.
The company noted that contingency plans are in place, with scheduled fuel cargo deliveries for March 2026 on track. Alternative routes and sources are being used to avoid disruption, and pump prices are expected to remain stable.
Strait of Hormuz Closure Sparks Global Shock
The crisis has intensified after Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but vital waterway between Iran and Oman that handles about 20% of global oil flows. Tehran has threatened attacks on vessels attempting passage, leading to delays, rising insurance costs, and spikes in international oil prices.
At least five tankers have been damaged, two crew members killed, and about 150 ships stranded. Oil prices surged to $79.50 per barrel on Monday, up from $73 on Friday.
Inflationary Pressures in Kenya
According to NCBA’s Market Inflation Note, Kenya’s headline inflation eased slightly to 4.3% year‑on‑year in February 2026, down from 4.4% in January. While overall price pressures remain contained, food inflation stayed elevated at 7.3%, driven by dry weather conditions.
- Vegetable prices surged: kales (+25.9%), cabbages (+43.4%), tomatoes (+10%).
- Staple foods also rose: maize flour (+9.6%), potatoes (+18.3%), wheat flour (+3.3%).
- Transport inflation climbed 4.0% year‑on‑year, supported by a 1.2% increase in petrol prices, though diesel prices dipped marginally by 0.1%.
- Core inflation moderated to 2.1%, reflecting subdued demand.
Global oil prices, now at USD 80 per barrel, pose risks of second‑round inflationary effects. Analysts expect Kenya’s Monetary Policy Committee to exercise caution on further policy easing in its April meeting.
Local Price Adjustments
Kenya’s Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority recently cut pump prices: super petrol by Sh4.24, diesel by Sh3.93, and kerosene by Sh1.00.
Current retail prices stand at Sh178.28 for petrol, Sh166.54 for diesel, and Sh152.78 for kerosene. Uganda has indicated that with stable supply, pump prices should remain relatively unchanged in the near term.
Regional Vulnerability
Asia, which sources about 60% of its oil imports from the Middle East, is already feeling the impact of disrupted flows. For East Africa, the crisis underscores vulnerability to external shocks.
Both Kenya and Uganda emphasised that proactive planning, forward contracting, and diversified supply routes are critical to shielding households and businesses from the full impact of global volatility.
Kenya and Uganda’s assurances provide short‑term stability, but the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and surging global prices highlight the fragility of energy security. Inflationary pressures, particularly in food and transport, are already evident in Kenya, and further oil price shocks could ripple through households and businesses.
With geopolitical tensions escalating, East Africa’s ability to maintain supply through forward contracts, diversified routes, and cautious monetary policy will be crucial to protecting livelihoods and sustaining economic stability.
Gulf Energy Secures $15M Rig to Fast‑Track South Lokichar Oil
